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气候变化及地球工程对农作物安全的影响

来源:    发布时间:2017-05-24    点击次数:

时间:2017-5-24  (周三)  下午1:30-3:30

地点:学院二楼报告厅

主讲人:杨辉一,英国利兹大学

 

摘要:

It is now virtually certain that the observed globally averaged temperature increase in the last 60 years is due mostly to humans. We are entering an unprecedented period of temperature change in recorded history and the scientific community has an important role to scientifically evaluate whether human intervention (geoengineering) could possibly counteract anthropogenic climate change and the potential side effects. Although geoengineering has been proposed to stabilise global temperature for many years, its impacts on crop production and stability are not fully understood. Using an ensemble of crop-climate model simulations, we illustrate that groundnut yields in India undergo a statistically significant decrease of up to 20 % as a result of solar dimming geoengineering relative to RCP4.5. The failure rate at national scale are statistically the same for future and geoengineered climate scenarios for this century; however, strong variations are noted within India between the scenarios. We demonstrate for the first time that, relative to the historical control period, crop failure rates over the century are projected to decrease with or without geoengineering in a future climate by 20-30 % (4-6 pp) for the Western, Central and Eastern India treated as a whole.   In contrast, south India crop failure rates are projected to have a large increase of 166 % (27 pp) or more, indicating this region is very sensitive to climatic changes. Adaptation to water and heat stress shows that irrigation promise to further increase yield and reduce crop failures currently taking place and in the future but there are significant regional variations in climate adaptation potential.

 

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